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Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District special election, 2018/Campaign finance and satellite spending
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March 13, 2018 |
N/A |
Pending |
Tim Murphy  |
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Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic[1] Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic[2] Inside Elections: Solid Democratic[3] |
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Democrat Conor Lamb won the special election for Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District against Republican Rick Saccone on March 13, 2018, by less than half a point.[4] The race was too close to call immediately following the election, and Saccone conceded to Lamb on March 21.[5]
The special election was held to fill the vacancy created by the departure of incumbent Tim Murphy (R). Murphy announced his resignation in October 2017 following reports that he encouraged a woman with whom he had an extramarital affair to have an abortion.[6] Lamb, Saccone, and Libertarian candidate Drew Miller competed for the seat.
For an overview of the race, click here.
Satellite spending
As of March 7, 2018, the House campaign arms of both major parties, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee, had entered the race on their candidates' behalfs. Three super PACs also announced buys for Democratic candidate Lamb and the Republican National Committee and four super PACs announced investments in GOP candidate Saccone.
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC): Politico reported on January 27, 2018, that the DCCC had purchased $236,000 in airtime for pro-Lamb ads. The airtime, which started on January 30, 2018, was scheduled to run for two weeks.[7]
- National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC): Politico also reported that the NRCC had invested $2 million in airtime for Saccone. The group's ads were scheduled to air from January 29, 2018, until Election Day.[8] Click here to view the NRCC's ads.
- End Citizens United: On February 22, 2018, Bridget Bowman of Roll Call reported that End Citizens United had made a $250,000 ad buy for Lamb.[9] Click here to view the End Citizens United's ad.
- NextGen America: Politico reporter Elena Schneider reported in March 2018 that the Tom Steyer group NextGen America had invested $50,000 in the race. The funding went to young voter-targeted digital ad and field programs.[10]
- Patriot Majority: Ben Kamisar of The Hill reported on February 27, 2018, that Patriot Majority PAC had invested $250,000 in digital and television airtime for Lamb.[11] The PAC reported spending $100,000 in airtime for the ad on March 7, 2018.[12] Click here to view the Patriot Majority PAC's ad.
- VoteVets: Elena Schneider of Politico Campaign Pro reported on March 5, 2018, that the VoteVets Action Fund had spent $350,000 on airtime for a TV ad opposing Saccone.[13] Click here to view the VoteVets ad.
- Republican National Committee (RNC): Politico reported that the RNC planned to invest approximately $1 million to support Saccone. The funding was expected to go primarily to get-out-the-vote operations.[8]
- 45Committee: On January 11, 2018, Politico reported that 45Committee, a pro-Trump group, would spend $500,000 on a media campaign in support of Saccone.[14] Click here to view the 45Committee's ad.
- America First Action: Politico reported on February 22, 2018, that the pro-Trump super PAC America First Action was purchasing $1 million in ad time for Saccone. The ads were slated to air later that week and the following week.[15]
- Congressional Leadership Fund: On January 5, 2018, the Congressional Leadership Fund announced that it was opening two field offices in the 18th Congressional District. The Fund, which is associated with U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R), described its 18th District plan as a "hyper-targeted operation [that] will consist of at least 50 full-time door knockers, making 250,000 voter contacts in door-to-door efforts by Election Day."[16] The Congressional Leadership Fund also invested $1.7 million in a media campaign supporting Saccone.[17] Click here to view the Congressional Leadership Fund's ads.
- Ending Spending Inc.: On January 4, 2018, Ending Spending announced that it was purchasing $1 million in airtime for a pro-Saccone ad. The Washington Post reported that the Ricketts family-backed PAC was the first group on the air in the special election. The PAC's ad emphasizes Saccone's experience as a state representative, Air Force veteran, and counterintelligence professional and says he has "a proven record of working to lower spending and cut property taxes."[18] Click here to view Ending Spending's ad.
Campaign finance
The table below contains data reported for the period from October 1, 2017, to February 21, 2018. It includes only candidates who were in the race and had reported at least $10,000 in receipts as of February 21, 2018.[19]
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Pennsylvania heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania.
- Republicans held 12 of 17 U.S. House seats in Pennsylvania.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Democrats held five of 11 state executive positions, while six were held by nonpartisan officials.
- The governor of Pennsylvania was Democrat Tom Wolf.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Pennsylvania General Assembly. They had a 120-79 majority in the state House and a 33-16 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Pennsylvania was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Tom Wolf (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Pennsylvania elections, 2018
Pennsylvania held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One U.S. Senate seat
- 18 U.S. House seats
- Governor and lieutenant governor
- 25 of 50 state Senate seats
- 203 state House seats
Demographics
| Demographic data for Pennsylvania | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 12,791,904 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 44,743 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 81.6% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 11% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 3.1% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.1% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 6.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 89.2% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 28.6% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $53,599 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 15.9% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Pennsylvania. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2017, Pennsylvania had a population of approximately 12,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Philadelphia (pop. est. 1.6 million), Pittsburgh (pop. est. 300,000), and Allentown (pop. est. 120,000).[20][21]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Pennsylvania Department of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Pennsylvania every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Pennsylvania 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Donald Trump |
48.6% |  Hillary Clinton |
47.9% | 0.7% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama |
52.1% | Mitt Romney |
46.7% | 5.4% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama |
54.7% | John McCain |
44.3% | 10.4% |
| 2004 | John Kerry |
51.0% | George Bush |
48.5% | 2.5% |
| 2000 | Al Gore |
50.6% | George Bush |
46.4% | 4.2% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Pennsylvania 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Patrick Toomey |
48.8% | Katie McGinty |
47.3% | 1.5% |
| 2012 | Bob Casey |
53.7% | Tom Smith |
44.6% | 9.1% |
| 2010 | Patrick Toomey |
51.0% | Joe Sestak |
49.0% | 2.0% |
| 2006 | Bob Casey |
58.7% | Rick Santorum |
41.3% | 17.4% |
| 2004 | Arlen Specter |
52.6% | Joseph Hoeffel |
42.0% | 10.6% |
| 2000 | Rick Santorum |
52.4% | Ron Klink |
45.5% | 6.9% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Pennsylvania.
| Election results (Governor), Pennsylvania 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Tom Wolf |
54.9% | Thomas Corbett |
45.1% | 9.8% |
| 2010 | Thomas Corbett |
54.5% | Dan Onorato |
45.5% | 9.0% |
| 2006 | Ed Rendell |
60.4% | Lynn Swann |
39.6% | 20.8% |
| 2002 | Ed Rendell |
53.4% | Mike Fisher |
44.3% | 9.1% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, Pennsylvania 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 13 |
72.2% | 5 |
27.8% | R+8 |
| 2014 | 13 |
72.2% | 5 |
27.8% | R+8 |
| 2012 | 13 |
72.2% | 5 |
27.8% | R+8 |
| 2010 | 12 |
63.2% | 7 |
36.8% | R+5 |
| 2008 | 7 |
36.8% | 12 |
63.2% | D+5 |
| 2006 | 8 |
42.1% | 11 |
57.9% | D+3 |
| 2004 | 12 |
63.2% | 7 |
36.8% | R+5 |
| 2002 | 12 |
63.2% | 7 |
36.8% | R+5 |
| 2000 | 11 |
52.4% | 10 |
47.6% | R+1 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Pennsylvania Party Control: 1992-2025
One year of a Democratic trifecta • Twelve years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | _ |
See also
- Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)
- Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District special election, 2018
- Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District
- Tim Murphy (Pennsylvania)
Footnotes
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "2018 House Race Ratings," accessed January 12, 2018
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2018 House," accessed January 12, 2018
- ↑ Inside Elections, "House Ratings," accessed January 12, 2018
- ↑ Pennsylvania Department of State, "Official Returns," accessed May 24, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "Saccone concedes Pennsylvania House special election to Lamb," March 21, 2018
- ↑ The New York Times, "Conservative Pennsylvania congressman resigns amid abortion scandal," October 5, 2017
- ↑ Politico, "Testing Trump, national cash floods another special election," January 27, 2018
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Politico, "Sound the alarm: National GOP breaks glass in Pennsylvania race," February 5, 2018
- ↑ Twitter, "Bridget Bowman on February 22, 2018," accessed February 27, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Republicans trash their candidate in Pennsylvania special election," March 8, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "Super PAC launches $250K ad buy to boost Dem in heated Pa. race," February 27, 2018
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Independent expenditures," March 7, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Texas primary tests DCCC's strategy," March 5, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Trump races to head off another special election debacle," January 11, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Trump super PAC to spend $1 million in Pennsylvania special election," February 22, 2018
- ↑ Congressional Leadership Fund, "Congressional Leadership Fund announces field offices for PA-18 special election," January 5, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Blackburn reserves $1M in airtime for Tennessee primary," February 7, 2018
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Republican super PACs surge into Pennsylvania special election," January 4, 2018
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Candidates for House of Representatives," accessed March 8, 2018
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Pennsylvania," accessed January 3, 2018
- ↑ Pennsylvania Demographics, "Pennsylvania Cities by Population," accessed January 3, 2018
